We draw a marble 4 times with replacement from the set {1, 2, 5, 10}. Each draw is independent. Since there are 4 possible outcomes for each of the 4 draws, the total number of possible sequences (outcomes in the sample space) is:
Total Outcomes = 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 = 44 = 256.
Identify Favorable Outcomes (Sum = 18)
We need to find sequences of 4 numbers (n1, n2, n3, n4) chosen from {1, 2, 5, 10} such that n1 + n2 + n3 + n4 = 18.
Let's find the combinations of numbers that sum to 18:
- The largest number is 10. If we use 10 twice (10+10=20), the sum is already > 18. So, we can use '10' at most once.
- If we don't use '10', the maximum sum is 5+5+5+5 = 20. Let's try combinations using only {1, 2, 5}:
- 5, 5, 5, ? -> Sum is 15, need 3 (not in the set).
- 5, 5, ?, ? -> Sum is 10, need 8 from two numbers in {1, 2, 5}. Possible pairs: (5, 3) - no 3; (2, 6) - no 6; (1, 7) - no 7. Cannot make 8 from {1, 2, 5}.
- So, we must use '10' exactly once. The remaining three numbers must sum to 18 - 10 = 8. These three numbers must be chosen from {1, 2, 5}.
- Can we use 5? Yes. If one number is 5, the other two must sum to 8 - 5 = 3. From {1, 2, 5}, the only way to get 3 is 1 + 2. So, the three numbers are {5, 2, 1}.
- Can we avoid using 5? The three numbers must be from {1, 2} and sum to 8. The maximum sum is 2+2+2 = 6. So, we cannot make 8 using only {1, 2}.
Therefore, the only combination of numbers (ignoring order for now) that sums to 18 is {1, 2, 5, 10}.
The favorable outcomes are the sequences formed by arranging the numbers {1, 2, 5, 10}. Since all four numbers are distinct, the number of ways to arrange them in a sequence of 4 draws is the number of permutations of these 4 numbers. Number of Favorable Sequences = 4! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24.
The probability is the ratio of the number of favorable sequences to the total number of possible sequences. Probability = (Number of Favorable Sequences) / (Total Number of Outcomes)
Probability =
Simplify the fraction: Divide both numerator and denominator by their greatest common divisor, which is 8.
Probability = = .
The probability that the sum of the numbers equals 18 is 3/32.
The correct option is (D) :